China strengthens its presence in the Arctic

As a result of the sanctions imposed due to the war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia has become even more dependent on China. This new situation creates conditions for even closer cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic. This cooperation has enabled China to gradually reinforce its presence in this part of the globe. Russia has become China's primary route to the Arctic region.

Increasing cooperation between China and Russia in the north is visible in many ways. Joint Russian and Chinese coastguard patrols were arranged in the Arctic for the first time in autumn 2024. These countries have also arranged joint military exercises in the Gulf of Finland.

Russia enjoys Chinese technological support and energy project investments in the Arctic region, where Sino-Russian research cooperation has also intensified.

Growing superpower competition in the Arctic has repercussions for Finland

The Arctic region is a key arena for superpower competition, and the growing presence of China in this region will probably boost this still further. As an Arctic state, Finland will inevitably notice any shifts in the local balance of power.

The mission of Supo as an intelligence service is to investigate trends of this kind that significantly affect the national security of Finland.

Any rapprochement between China and Russia will have a wide range of impacts on Finland. Russia views NATO as a direct threat, and China opposes all military alliances that include the USA. The Arctic region is important for developing, using, detecting and combating nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles, and for the associated strategic balance.

The risk of Western expertise and technology reaching Russia via China has also grown. Finland has diverse Arctic expertise that is of interest to China and Russia. A detailed understanding of how to build icebreakers and other ice-strengthened vessels is merely one example of this.

The Arctic is a key region for satellite and other technology

The Arctic region is strategically important for reasons of security, trade and technology. We have long been aware that melting ice sheets will open up new sea routes and access to natural resources, such as minerals, gas and oil. As a superpower, China will seek to exploit these opportunities.

The Arctic region is similarly important for satellite technology, as the polar regions are an ideal location for ground stations. Many military and civilian positioning and communication systems rely on satellite technology.

While China has sought to establish ground stations in the Nordic region, these projects have drawn criticism from Finland and other Nordic countries. Finland has responded by making ground and radar stations subject to licensing. Current legislation also assesses licences from a national security perspective.

China also understands that a superpower must have a navy capable of operating at any location, including in Arctic conditions. China is seeking an independent Arctic operating capability in the long term, and has accordingly invested in developing its icebreaker fleet.

Russia needs China

The Russian war of aggression has had a significant impact on the dynamics of the Arctic region. While this impact has included paralysing the work of the Arctic Council, the most important change has concerned relations between China and Russia.

Even a decade ago, Russia was far more sceptical about Arctic cooperation with China, as it sought to maintain its own dominant status in the region. Even though China and Russia have similar goals, with their cooperation growing closer in recent years, the relationship is still characterised by distrust. China now has a stronger negotiating position in discussing Arctic cooperation with Russia than before the war of aggression.

The Russian military industry is highly reliant on technology imported from China, including microchips and various components. Russia is also increasingly dependent on China economically as Chinese support enables Russia continue its aggressive operations in Europe.

Russia should nevertheless not be underestimated. Russia remains the stronger actor in the Arctic region due to its long history, even though it must now tolerate more from China than before. It is telling that Russia has more than fifty icebreakers, while China has only five.

A strengthened Arctic presence is one of China's broader objectives

China is pursuing a global military presence overall, and so its interest in the Arctic is only part of a broader ambition in which the most important issue is superpower competition with the USA.

China benefits from securing a closer partnership with Russia in confronting the USA. It is seeking to reinforce international structures that are independent of the West, with growing cooperation between the BRICS countries serving as one example of this.

Russia also benefits from this reinforcement, even though it is clearly led by the Chinese.

China has no desire to jeopardise a good bilateral relationship by applying heavy pressure on Russia, whose stability frees up Chinese resources for its primary aim of pursuing superpower competition with the USA. China may even allow matters to take their course, waiting until Russia has to request assistance.